From thinking twice about buying certain products to the much weightier decision over whether to even have kids, the already high cost of living is hitting home for Albertans as the latest Canada Food Price Report predicts groceries will get even more expensive in 2025.
Food prices in Canada are likely to increase by three to five per cent overall next year, according to the 15th annual food price report released by a partnership between researchers at Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan and the University of British Columbia.
“We’re just trying to get by, but five per cent is pretty disheartening to hear,” Edmonton resident Sydney Dick said outside a southside Walmart store on Thursday.
It’s just her and her partner in their household and the cost of living has them questioning if they can ever afford to expand the family.
“To be completely honest, the grocery prices do affect our decision on whether or not we want to have kids — because that’s where we are at in life.”
“With the way it’s going, especially with five per cent, that’s not really helpful,” Dick added. She said eating healthy is a priority in her household but rising costs make it hard.
“I think we’ve cut as many corners as we can in trying to stick to fresh produce and protein, and we’re really hoping not to let go of that — but if it keeps going up, it’s gotta go eventually.”
The report’s authors used three different machine learning and AI models to make their predictions, and concluded a Canadian family of four can expect to spend $16,833.67 on food in 2025 — an increase of up to $801.56 from last year.
Edmonton dad Levon Joslin has a toddler at home and his wife is pregnant with another little one on the way, and he said they probably spend $300 to $400 a week on groceries — right on par with the average in the report.
Joslin said they have simplified their meal plans to save money.
“Trying to be more savvy,” he said, indicating that is why he shops for groceries at Walmart. “Just trying to find places with the best deals, buying in bulk.”
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The report also said some items could see even higher increases — meat prices, for example, could rise between four and six per cent in 2025.
This is in part due to record-high beef prices that have resulted from years of drought in Western Canada that have led cattle producers to reduce the size of their herds.
“It’s three to five per cent across food overall, but it’s not the same across the individual food categories,” said Kristina Kupferschmidt, an associate professor at the University of Prince Edward Island who worked on the report.
“So we’re actually expecting more significant increases in things like meat and less significant increases in things like fish and fruit.”
Vegetable prices could also rise faster than some other categories, driven largely by the lower Canadian dollar, which is expected to reduce the buying power of Canadian food importers in 2025.
Edmonton mom Katie Shea said she wants to feed her kids the best food possible, and tries to balance the cost by shopping at discount stores and cheaper places like Walmart, but with that comes products that sometimes expire faster or are not in the greatest condition to begin with.
Shea said groceries are one of her family’s biggest monthly expenses.
“It’s going to get harder and harder because cost of living is going up but our wages are not,” Shea said. “Not being able to afford meat is crazy. There are a lot of great vegetarian options and that’s something that we’re supplementing into our meal plans.”
“Saying we can’t afford steak anymore, I never thought we’d be there, you know? That it’s going to be harder — it’s pretty daunting.”
Kupferschmidt notes while a three-to-five-per cent increase in one year may not be a dealbreaker for some budgets, the snowball effect of years of inflation is what is making it challenging for many.
“It’s the fact that food prices have already gone up so much in recent years that I think it makes it extra complicated as a consumer. It’s contributing to so many people that are food insecure and having to access resources like food banks.”
Edmonton’s Food Bank is already seeing more than 40,000 people use its services every month, plus it supports over 350 different agencies, shelters, soup kitchens and organizations within the community.
“We’re breaking records every year in the wrong way,” said spokesperson Tamisan Bencz-Knight.
The charity is having to find ways to increase capacity while affording the hike in cost itself.
“Hearing an increase just means that there may even be some changes for us as an organization and what we’re going to be able to hand out to people in need. So that will be a concern for us in 2025,” Bencz-Knight said.
“It is very concerning.”
Bencz-Knight said the food bank is already struggling to keep up with the need, while at the same time seeing more and more people working full-time jobs requiring help.
“There’s going to be some challenging times, that’s for sure,” she said. “It might be that we have to change our eating habits a little bit as individuals.”
She said instead of buying animal proteins, shoppers may have to incorporate more lentils, beans, chickpeas and other cheaper sources of protein into their diets.
“It is our new reality as a community that we have to think about our food differently.”
The food bank accepts donations of homegrown fruits and vegetables in the summer and fall, and Bencz-Knight said boosting that program is something the food bank is looking at.
She also noted all the major grocery stores give their surplus to the food bank, which really helps.
Despite the grim news, Bencz-Knight said she is optimistic more fortunate Edmontonians will step up to help their neighbours.
“Yes, these are heavy times, but we have each other in Edmonton. … (We are) that little big city. I don’t think we’re the six-degree separation — we’re about two-degree separation with everybody here.
“I truly believe that Edmontonians, when called upon, will step up and support each other.”
As in recent years, climate change continues to be a factor in food prices as extreme weather makes growing crops and raising livestock challenging for farmers.
“We are seeing more frequent and more serious weather events, so that will definitely have downstream effects on food pricing,” Kupferschmidt said. “That could mean increases to crop-based categories, but it could also mean things like supply chain disruptions.
“I think that is one of the hardest pieces to solve because we don’t really know when the next huge storm will happen.”
This year, the report’s authors are also watching for potential impacts related to the return of former U.S. president Donald Trump to the White House in 2025.
These could include the effect of reciprocal tariffs, if Canada chooses to fight back against Trump’s threatened 25 per cent tariffs on imports into the U.S., as well as a potential competitiveness gap if Trump makes good on his promise to reduce costs for American farmers.
“The policy decisions that are made in the next in the next year will definitely impact food pricing,” Kupferschmidt said
— With files from Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press