Nanos Research Founder and Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos speaks with Alberta Primetime host Michael Higgins about the Conservatives continuing to hold a lead over the Liberals in the polls.
Michael Higgins: Let’s start on your latest tracking of federal party support. We’ve talked about it before, the Conservatives are certainly in the driver’s seat, they have been for several months. Where does the advantage currently sit?
Nik Nanos: Well, right now the Conservatives are enjoying a very comfortable 17 percentage point advantage over the Liberals. That’s been anywhere between 15 and 20 points over the last number of months and it speaks to your point, the pressure that Justin Trudeau is under. Maybe the Council of the Federation meeting is kind of like a shark tank. If he showed up, it’d be like a shark tank, drop him in and then have all the premiers take a run at him and the federal government about things that need to be done to improve the federation but not great news on the on the polling front for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.
Michael Higgins: The premiers all were looking to take a bite out of him, that is for sure. That stunning defeat for the Liberals in Toronto-St. Paul’s, is that reflected in your numbers? Or are your numbers a reflection of that?
Nik Nanos: Well the numbers are basically a reflection of that, you know the thing is, we knew that Toronto-St. Paul’s that the Conservatives were trying to improve. The fact that they had a smash and grab victory speaks to the strength of the Conservative organization on the ground but you know the reality is that Toronto-St. Paul’s was a little mini referendum on the federal Liberals and the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Justin Trudeau, and they sent a message that they want change. That’s basically what we’ve been seeing in the polling over the last number of months, that Canadians want to see either a policy change or a leadership change, some kind of change. And right now Pierre Poilievre is the person best positioned to take advantage of that sentiment.
Michael Higgins: Talking about changes, a federal cabinet meeting is to be held virtually on Friday, the first in some time, certainly the first since questions began to arise over Chrystia Freeland’s status as finance minister and now word today that labour minister Seamus O’Regan is quitting his cabinet post and maybe not running again. How big of a shake up lies ahead?
Nik Nanos: It all comes down to what Justin Trudeau is prepared to do to try to stay on as leader and to be there to fight the fight for the Liberals in the next federal election. It’s never great optics when people decide to retire or they don’t want to run under your banner. So you know, losing a very close ally and supporter like Seamus O’Regan is not positive for Justin Trudeau. Even speculation about tension between the Prime Minister’s Office and the Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland is not good because she’s been one of his most loyal and stalwart supporters. And, you know, if he throws her under the bus, what does it speak to anybody else who’s a Liberal in cabinet if right now Justin Trudeau is focused on his own political future?
Michael Higgins: If there are big changes afoot, if in fact a cabinet shuffle emerges here, how much do you expect the spotlight to fade then on calls for Trudeau, his resignation, the need for new party leadership? Enough there for a shift in Liberal support or does it pile it on?
Nik Nanos: I think it just piles it on unless there’s a new face. There’s been speculation about Justin Trudeau having some sort of discussion with former Bank of Canada head Mark Carney. So you know, for Justin Trudeau, what’s clear is that he’s got to put some new faces there. Because if he’s just, I don’t want to say, I guess I’m going to say, shuffling the seats on the deck of the Titanic, it’s not going to work. So they need to show some new people, they need to actually demonstrate that perhaps there’s some new things and there’s new energy in the government, because doing the same old stuff that they’ve been doing since 2015, with the same leader and the same policies, won’t cut it for average Canadians, they want to see something different.
Michael Higgins: Speaking of seeing something different, all of us poli watchers here in Canada are putting a lot of focus now south of the border. The Republican National Convention, that of course in the wake of the shooting at the Trump rally, also uncertainty over Joe Biden’s status, and his party’s presidential candidacy. How, much does that overshadow the federal political dynamic here at home?
Nik Nanos: I think there’s a lesson there. There’s a lesson in what’s happening in the United States and in the United Kingdom and in France. What does this mean? Incumbents are in trouble. People are grumpy, they’re anxious about the state of their personal finances and where jobs are going to come from, and incumbents are basically getting, I don’t know if we’re allowed to say this on CTV, politically spanked by voters who are looking at alternatives. So you know, Donald Trump, it’s not just what I’ll say, the health condition of Joe Biden, it’s the fact that many Americans don’t feel that they’re doing as well as they were before and as a result they’re looking at punishing incumbents. And that’s one of the things that Justin Trudeau is going to have to deal with too.
Michael Higgins: And in terms of reflection in the polls, any sort of wave for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives to ride on based on what we’re seeing from the RNC?
Nik Nanos: The fact that the Conservatives are anywhere between 15 to 20 points ahead of the Liberals means that they’re already in a really great spot. For the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre it’s really about not making a mistake and looking like a government in-waiting and letting the Liberals defeat themselves. So I’m not sure whether Pierre Poilievre could ramp up a 20, 25 higher point advantage but the thing is if he has anywhere from a 15 to 20 point advantage, he’s in the driver’s seat and he can basically do whatever he wants, as long as he doesn’t make a mistake.
Michael Higgins: You’ve also been pulling personal finance impressions, how are Canadians feeling about their state of finances and what do those impressions reflect?
Nik Nanos: When we ask Canadians whether their personal finances are better or worse off than they were a year ago, Canadians by a factor of two to three are more likely to say they’re worse off and this is a killer stat for any incumbent government. Because the thing is, if Canadians are struggling to pay for groceries or struggling to pay for housing, they really have nothing to lose by changing the government. And it speaks to what Canadians want to know is, where are jobs going to come from, where are well-paying jobs going to come from so that they can pay the bills, and where’s prosperity going to come from? And I think that’s what they want to hear from all of the federal party leaders.