Most of the country saw home sales decline slightly last month, but Edmonton’s real estate market plowed forward on a sustained upswing.
New statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) on Thursday show a 0.7 per cent dip in national home sales in July compared to the previous month.
In a statement, senior CREA economist Shaun Cathcart pointed to markets anticipating more interest rate cuts as one of the reasons behind slower sales activity — the Bank of Canada announced two long-awaited cuts this year, bringing the key interest rate down to 4.5 per cent in the final week of July.
But the month-over-month impact didn’t look the same in the Hamilton-Burlington area or in Edmonton, according to CREA. Both saw sales gains in July, offsetting sliding activity in Calgary and the Greater Toronto Area.
Realtors Association of Edmonton chair Melanie Boles said the city’s market is exceeding expectations for 2024.
“We had a very conservative forecast coming into this year … and then all of a sudden we saw our market take off with migration, with our good inventory levels.”
Association statistics show Edmonton’s June home sales pulled back compared to the month before, with the first interest rate cut arriving on June 5.
But the Edmonton area is consistently beating its 2023 residential sales numbers, starting off with a year-over-year increase of nearly 47 per cent in January, and soaring up to a 55 per cent increase in April.
July sales are up 27 per cent compared to the same time last year.
Tom Shearer, broker and owner at Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate in Edmonton, said he expects real estate activity in the city to stay busy for the rest of the year.
“In other markets and other regions, while they’re seeing pricing remain somewhat stable, they are seeing a major drop in sales activity. I think that just is a sign of Edmonton bucking the trend,” he said.
“It’s because we’re more affordable.”
More sales, higher prices
Edmonton’s composite benchmark housing price — a measure that combines single-family homes, condos and townhouses — topped $400,000 in June. It hasn’t been that high since a spring 2022 market peak, with a flurry of real-estate activity as the Bank of Canada started a long cycle of rate hikes.
But the typical cost of a home in Edmonton continues to be well below any of Canada’s other big cities. Even in Calgary, the benchmark housing price is now approaching $600,000.
“I don’t think the rate cuts have been enough to move the needle in the more expensive marketplaces across the country,” Shearer said.
“Whereas in Edmonton, you already have that cooked into the pricing that’s here right now.”
With less than a month since the latest cut to interest rates, housing market stats have yet to reflect the full impact of the lower cost of borrowing.
But after seven months of brisk sales in Alberta’s capital, Boles said the city’s housing inventory is tighter than it’s been for more than two years.
That’s pushing conditions toward a sellers’ market, and real estate agents will be watching supply closely for the rest of 2024.
“It depends on migration numbers, what the builders are doing, housing starts — there are so many factors that play into that inventory question,” she said.
“But definitely, we’re seeing our market sustain affordability. We’re seeing good listings come on to the market, we’re seeing good buyer activity, so we’re really holding a very solid market here.”