Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will meet with his ministers in Halifax on Sunday for the annual cabinet retreat, a gathering that comes after a year of dire polling for the government and disquiet among some Liberal MPs.
Some of those MPs are now calling for big changes — and for the prime minister to publicly show signs of contrition.
Cabinet is meeting for three days and is expected to tackle pocketbook issues and seek to strengthen Canada’s relationship with the United States ahead of the House of Commons’ return in September.
“The number one thing I think we need to do is to remain grounded in the experience of people who live in our communities,” Housing Minister Sean Fraser said Monday.
But members of the Liberal caucus are watching closely to see whether the prime minister has listened to them and will act on any of their ideas following the party’s surprise byelection loss in June.
CBC News spoke to six MPs who say they want to see cabinet agree on several measures: a major cabinet shuffle, simplified public messaging, an effort to market the Liberals as a team and a more aggressive communications campaign contrasting the party with the Conservatives.
“I think he just needs to shake things up a bit and be fresh again, because right now we’re looking like an old and tired government,” said one Liberal MP.
Some of those MPs said they also want to see Trudeau publicly address what hasn’t worked in the past, and present a new path forward to turn the Liberals’ political fortunes around.
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said other politicians — including Ontario Premier Doug Ford — have enjoyed a bump in popularity after apologizing or showing signs of “contrition and deep empathy for the state of how people are feeling.” Trudeau has yet to do that, he said.
“I don’t think we’ve seen that yet from him in any clear way, and I think that’s a path forward for him if he intends to run again and wants to lead the country into the years ahead,” Coletto said.
The sources — who spoke to CBC News on the condition of anonymity so they could speak freely — said that Trudeau has acknowledged privately what hasn’t worked for his government over the past year, but hasn’t done so publicly.
One MP said the high number of temporary foreign workers and international students being welcomed to Canada is one example of a policy decision the prime minister needs to explain to Canadians personally.
Coletto said the current political environment is the most challenging one Trudeau has ever faced. The Liberals have consistently polled about 15 points behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives over the past year.
“If there was an election today, it’s highly likely that the Conservatives would not only win the most seats, but would likely form a majority government,” said Coletto. “They’re leading in almost every part of the country.”
A stunning byelection loss in the former Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s in June prompted a wave of discontent in the Liberal caucus. Some of those MPs went public by calling on the Trudeau government to make changes to its team and strategy. One said Trudeau should step down.
But with the exception of former labour minister Seamus O’Regan’s resignation from cabinet in July, little has changed within government since that byelection.
‘There’s never a good time, there’s never a perfect time. There’s just the time,’ outgoing minister of labour Seamus O’Regan told Power & Politics Thursday regarding his decision to leave cabinet. Liberal sources tell CBC O’Regan will be replaced by Quebec MP Steven MacKinnon.
Meeting expected to tackle cost of living, U.S. relations
The cabinet retreat is expected to focus on issues such as the cost of living, housing and health care — top-of-mind matters for many Canadians feeling a financial pinch.
Davenport MP Julie Dzerowicz said she wants to see a clear vision after the byelection loss.
“I’ll be looking for what our game plan is going forward,” said Dzerowicz.
The cabinet also intends to hash out plans to strengthen Canada’s relationship with the United States ahead of this November’s election.
Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. Kirsten Hillman and former ambassadors David MacNaughton and Frank McKenna are among those expected to appear at the cabinet retreat.
Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturing Association, said he’ll be watching for any indication that Canada will match the U.S. tariff package on China.
President Joe Biden announced in May that the U.S. would impose new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, and steel and aluminum used for those kinds of vehicles.
Volpe said he’s “fairly confident” the government is going to match the American tariff package, but the Americans are “a little bit nervous” about Canada’s support.
“I think the sooner we get to where the Americans are, the better it will be for our trade relations,” Volpe said.
Liberals draw inspiration from surging Democrats
Some MPs said the Liberals are also looking south of the border for inspiration.
Two MPs said Trudeau is already trying to match the Democrats’ message of joy and optimism, pointing to news conferences this month where Trudeau spoke about the Olympics and Canadian pride.
But one Liberal MP pointed out that the Democrats have only held the presidency for four years, while Trudeau’s government has been in power for much longer.
“There’s fatigue that’s not cured with a smile,” the MP told CBC News. “It’s not going to work.”
Another Liberal MP said that while Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is channelling the “sunny ways” messaging that helped bring Trudeau to power in 2015, that approach is “no longer resonating” for the prime minister.
Many Liberal MPs said it’s critical for cabinet to embrace improvements to its communications strategy because the party’s messaging is too complex when compared to the Conservatives.
One Liberal MP said they want cabinet to match how Harris and her vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz are targeting Republican Donald Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance. They said Harris is effectively presenting the Democrats as a party of hope and the future, and casting the Republicans as problematic.
Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith said he wants the party to run ads to “educate Canadians about Poilievre’s track record and the choice Canadians face.”
One Liberal MP said they still believe Trudeau has to resign. Two others said it’s too late to replace him and there isn’t anyone better placed to take on Poilievre.
Dzerowicz said she “100 per cent” supports Trudeau.
Multiple Liberal MPs said they want to see a major cabinet shuffle sweep out ministers who aren’t delivering and pulling their political weight. One source said the caucus has been circulating a list of cabinet ministers some MPs want to see dropped from cabinet.
The cabinet retreat comes ahead of byelections set for Sept. 16 in the ridings of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Quebec and Elmwood-Transcona in Manitoba.
One Liberal MP told CBC News that if the party loses the Montreal riding — traditionally a safe Liberal seat — it will be “another huge blow” that will prompt more questions about Trudeau’s leadership.
A second Liberal MP said the byelection will be “very telling” and “solidify one way or another what the future of the Liberal Party is going to be.”