Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he hears Canadians’ “concerns and frustrations” as questions mount about his future as Liberal leader following his party’s stunning byelection loss.
Conservative Don Stewart won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s in the early hours of Tuesday in a dramatic win, ending a race that was largely viewed as referendum on Trudeau’s leadership.
“This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear your concerns and frustrations,” Trudeau said in a media statement.
“These are not easy times. And it is clear, I and my entire team, have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel.”
Before Monday’s close vote, a Conservative candidate hadn’t been competitive in Toronto-St. Paul’s since the 1980s. The party hadn’t won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election.
Éric Grenier, a polling analyst who runs thewrit.ca, said that while the polls suggested the byelection would be close, even the Conservatives likely were surprised by the win.
“Could it get much worse for the Liberals? This is perhaps one of the worst results that they could have had right now because they’re going into the summer, there’s been lots of questions about Justin Trudeau’s leadership,” he said.
“This is a big loss for the Liberals and it’s a symbolic loss. I think there are going to be a lot of questions that are going to start being asked over the next few weeks.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he and his Liberal team have ‘much more work to do,’ following the loss of a Liberal seat in the Toronto-St.Paul’s riding.
The outgoing Liberal MP for the riding, Carolyn Bennett, beat her Conservative opponent by about 24 points in 2021. This time around, Liberal candidate Leslie Church lost by about two points.
Stewart’s win broke the Liberals’ grip on urban Toronto and raises questions for Liberal MPs who thought their seats were safe.
Roughly 55 Liberal MPs won their Ontario ridings by margins smaller than the one Bennett posted in Toronto–St. Paul’s in the last general election, according to a CBC News analysis of past election data.
Conservative candidate Don Stewart has won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul’s. CBC’s Dwight Drummond spoke with political analyst Éric Grenier about the stunning result, and what it means for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future.
“Will there be a lot of Liberal MPs who are going to look at these results in Toronto-St. Paul’s and think to themselves, ‘I won my riding by a margin that was a lot smaller than 24 points, what are my chances of being re-elected?'” said Grenier.
Liberals stand by Trudeau — in public
Trudeau has repeatedly told journalists he plans to stay on as leader of the party.
“We will never stop working and fighting to make sure you have what you need to get through these tough times. My focus is on your success and that’s where it’s going to stay,” he said Tuesday.
Already, some Liberal MPs are musing behind the scenes about a shakeup.
“I think he has to go or there has to be a dramatic change,” one Liberal MP told CBC News Tuesday, speaking on the condition they not be named.
Another Liberal MP, also speaking on the condition they not be named, said major changes are needed.
“Does he have to go? I think it’s difficult to see other options,” the said.
Liberals MPs who spoke publicly Tuesday backed the prime minister.
“The prime minister is committed to leading us into the next election and he has our support,” said Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.
“This is a disappointing result. We take it seriously.”
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, speaking after a Liberal loss in a Toronto byelection, says Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is ‘committed to leading us into the next election and he has our support.’
Minister of Northern Affairs Dan Vandal said he supports Trudeau “100 per cent.”
“I think the real question Canadians are going to ask themselves is, what sort of Canada do you want to live in?” he said during a news conference.
“Do you want to live in a Canada where a government invests in its people, in health care, dental care, child care and a whole bunch of other initiatives? Or do you want a Canada where everything is gradually cut back, which a Poilievre government is sure to do.”
Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada, co-chair of the Liberal Party’s national campaign, said Trudeau will stay on through the next election.
“He has said it many times, he will stay for the next campaign. This is not the general campaign. This is a byelection. Byelections always, you know, can have a surprise,” she said Tuesday.
“We’re, of course, not happy with the results, but we’re taking lessons from this byelection and making sure that we’re going to be working harder to talk to Canadians about the choice that we will have to make in October 2025.”
Liberal MP for Whitby MP Ryan Turnbull said Trudeau will have to re-evaluate and reflect after the byelection result.
“But that’s up to him,” he said.
Liberals don’t have a leadership review mechanism
The Liberal Party doesn’t have a leadership review mechanism built into its constitution. It does allow for “leadership endorsement” ballots, which permit registered Liberals to vote on whether they still support the current leader.
The endorsement ballot is conducted by each riding association and each riding is weighted equally, with 100 points. A leader needs 50 per cent of the points nationally to stay on.
Parliamentary Secretary to the Deputy Prime Minister Ryan Turnbull responds to questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future following the loss of a Liberal stronghold seat in the Toronto-St.Paul’s byelection.
But such a vote occurs only after the party loses a general election.
In 2015, Parliament adopted legislation meant to make party leaders more accountable to their caucus members.
The Reform Act — put forward by Conservative MP Michael Chong — allows MPs to review and remove their party leader. Under the Reform Act, if 20 per cent of a caucus signs a petition calling for a leadership review, a vote is triggered. If a majority of the MPs vote against the leader, the leader is forced to step down.
But the Reform Act states that parties must vote on whether to adopt any of its measures after each general election. The Conservative Party is the only one that has done so; the party used the Reform Act to oust Erin O’Toole from the leadership in 2022.
Congratulations to Common Sense Conservative candidate, <a href=”https://twitter.com/donstewartTO?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@donstewartTO</a>, on a shocking upset in Toronto-St. Paul’s, where people voted to axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime.<br><br>Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax… <a href=”https://t.co/72n6c2h9jC”>pic.twitter.com/72n6c2h9jC</a>
—@PierrePoilievre
Celebrating his party’s win Tuesday, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre urged the prime minister to call an early election.
“Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this,” he posted on social media. “He must call a carbon tax election now.”
Liberal Party spokesperson Parker Lund said the Liberals know there’s hard work ahead of them
“We knew this would be a tough race, with byelections not often favouring the governing party,” he said in a media statement.
“Our Liberal team is ready to keep working to reach Canadians.”