Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced Friday that his party will vote non-confidence against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, which means a federal election may come sooner than later.
It’s been a tumultuous few weeks in Ottawa, and Trudeau’s political future is on thin ice.
Not only is Trudeau’s government facing a looming trade war with US President-elect Donald Trump, but his reputation took a major blow with the resignation of former finance minister and deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday.
A domino effect of political events has occurred since Freeland’s departure, including the appointment of Dominic LeBlanc as Canada’s new finance minister, a fall fiscal update, a cabinet shuffle, and Trudeau awkwardly trying to save face at a Liberal holiday party.
Calls for Trudeau to resign have also grown across all political parties, including among his own Liberals.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Singh have been vocal about Trudeau stepping down.
But when pressed by various reporters about whether he would vote against the Liberal government to trigger an early election, Singh wasn’t explicit about his stance.
However, he changed his tune on Friday.
“Justin Trudeau failed in the biggest job a Prime Minister has: to work for people, not the powerful. To focus on Canadians, not themselves,” wrote Singh in a letter to Canadians, which was published on social media.
Justin Trudeau failed in the biggest job a Prime Minister has: to work for people, not the powerful.
The NDP will vote to bring this government down, and give Canadians a chance to vote for a government who will work for them. pic.twitter.com/uqklF6RrUX
— Jagmeet Singh (@theJagmeetSingh) December 20, 2024
“The Liberals don’t deserve another chance. That’s why the NDP will vote to bring this government down, and give Canadians a chance to vote for a government who will work for them. No matter who is leading the Liberal Party, this government’s time is up. We will put forward a clear motion of non-confidence in the next sitting of the House of Commons.”
@theJagmeetSingh/X
Following Singh’s letter, Poilievre wrote to the Governor General asking her to recall the House for a confidence vote.
“I have written the Governor General confirming that the Prime Minister has lost the confidence of the House and that Parliament must be recalled to hold a vote before the end of the year on triggering an Axe The Tax election,” said the Conservative leader.
“I am asking the NDP leader to match his actions to his word and likewise send a letter to Her Excellency asking for the same. ”
With the possibility of a federal election on the horizon, does Singh actually have a shot at becoming prime minister?
In a November 29 interview with Daily Hive, he appeared confident his party had a shot at winning enough seats to form government.
“We are here, and we have a real offer to make people’s lives better. And I just want to [tell] folks that are feeling maybe a little lack of hope, if we bring people together, we can do big things,” he said.
“We can do this. We can bring people together, we can fight and we can win.”
What do the polls say?
While Singh remains hopeful, the polls say otherwise.
Based on the most recent polling data from Abacus Data, it’s a long shot for Singh to become Canada’s prime minister, as only 18% of Canadians surveyed said they would vote for the NDP if an election were held today.
The party isn’t far behind the Liberals with 20% of the current vote share.
The Conservatives lead the polls, with 45% of Canadians saying they’d cast their ballot for the Tories.
Abacus Data
When it comes to favorability amongst the Canadian public, Singh fares better than Trudeau.
New polling data from the Angus Reid Institute found that 28% of those surveyed approved or found Trudeau favourable while Poilievre (37%) and Singh (38%) were neck and neck.
“The Conservatives under leader Pierre Poilievre have lapped their rivals when it comes to voter support, but views of Poilievre himself remain more negative than positive,” stated Angus Reid.
“Fewer than two-in-five (37%) say they have a favourable view of the CPC leader, outnumbered by the majority of Canadians (55%) who do not.”
Angus Reid Institute
The data company noted that there “have been signs of improvement over the past few months” for Singh in terms of public opinion.
“Indeed, he has enjoyed a five-point bump from his nadir of 33% in September, but still ends the year down six points.”
As the Conservatives lead in popularity, Singh hasn’t spoken directly about how his party would or would not cooperate with the party.
The NDP previously held a supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals to prop up the party’s minority government. Singh ended that agreement in September.
His letter on Friday stated that the “next fight is a big one.”
“Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives will give CEOs and big businesses anything they want, and make callous cuts to pay for it. They will cut health care, child care, housing, and people’s pensions,” stated Singh.
Although the past week has been full of political action, Canadians will have to wait a while longer to see what pans out for Trudeau. MPs will return to the House of Commons on January 27, 2025, for the new session.