La Niña has entered the building.
Or it’s knocking at the door, at least.
The global weather phenomenon — typically known for producing colder, snowier than average winters on the Prairies — has been absent since early 2023, when it ended a rare three-year run.
But it’s expected to arrive again soon, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicting a 59 per cent chance it will develop by the end of January.
La Niña’s opposite weather pattern, El Niño, dominated the climate picture through much of 2023 until its dissipation this past May. Known for making Prairie winters warmer and drier than normal, El Niño did just that — and made 2023 Earth’s warmest year in 174 trips around the sun.
For the first time since the winter of 2015/16, the Prairies are experiencing El Nino, a weather pattern originating in the Pacific Ocean that can make the winters warmer and drier than normal
Danielle Desjardins, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), said this La Niña event likely won’t will match that intensity.
“We’re not gonna see, necessarily, the typical correlations between the colder and snowier winter and the La Niña signal,” Desjardins said.
That doesn’t mean it won’t be cold and snowy at times, she said. Many parts of the Prairies have already seen significant snowfall and cold snaps through the fall.
A reported 20 centimetres of snow had fallen in Saskatoon as of 7:30 a.m. on Sunday. Environment Canada was forecasting up to 30 centimetres of total accumulation in the city by the end of Sunday, which is on top of the 17 centimetres it received this past week.
But ECCC’s December, January and February combined temperature outlook shows much of the country is expected to be warmer than normal.
And La Niña shouldn’t last long.
“All the models are showing that we’re going to be trending toward a neutral signal again by the springtime,” Desjardins said.
NOAA is predicting a 61 per cent chance the neutral phase will begin between March and May.
Climate change could impact La Niña
La Niña and El Niño are the result of changing sea surface temperatures in a region of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru.
El Niño forms when those sea surface temperatures are higher than average, while La Niña forms from lower than average temperatures. The more above of below average, the stronger the event.
But with climate change warming ocean waters around the world, the threshold for declaring a La Niña event may be changing, according to Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with ECCC.
“This has sort of raised the bar for how much cooling of the ocean surface is needed to be called a La Niña,” Merryfield said.
“So what this is really telling us is that as the world warms, the conventional definitions of La Niña and El Niño are starting to become obsolete.”
A new analysis from the non-profit Climate Central suggests that Canadian cities are seeing more above zero days in winter because of climate change, with Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto losing the most sub-zero weather.
He said this warming trend could also mute La Niña’s effects, like cold and snow on the Prairies.
Merryfield said Canadian winters, in general, have been getting warmer due to climate change. That likely means the effects of La Niña have already been getting less harsh over the decades.
Pattern change good news for winter lovers
Regardless of La Niña’s strength, the snow and cold already seen across the Prairies are welcome sights for Yens Pedersen, president of the Regina Ski Club.
Pedersen said all ski trails around the city have been open and groomed for a while now.
As of Dec. 19, Regina has about 30 centimetres of snow pack, compared to no snow pack at the same time in 2023.
“Last year was awful,” Pedersen said. “My very first day of skiing last winter was Feb. 14, Valentine’s Day. And I got in exactly three weeks of skiing.”
It’s also good news for businesses like Table Mountain Regional Park, a ski resort approximately 30 kilometres northwest of North Battleford.
Lawrence Blouin, the resort’s general manager, called last winter a “disaster,” with the park unable to open until the middle of January.
“We missed a full month,” said Blouin, who estimates he’s been in business for more than 40 years. “In all the years I’ve been here … that’s the first time we’ve missed [being open for] Christmas.”
He said Table Mountain took “quite a hit” to its finances as a result, but was able to recover thanks to cold temperatures and snow later in the winter.
He’s hopeful for the winter ahead — especially given ECCC’s prediction of higher than average amounts of precipitation through December, January and February.
“Lots of snow … would be beneficial for us,” he said.